100 sim test

As a lot of the owners that talk to me on a regular basis know, I typically run a 100 season sim test after each of the sims to see what the likely outcomes of the season are. I decided to share one just for fun (even though I know it's going to pump up admin's ego, but take heart, his Championship chances have dropped 20% since the last sim test after last sim)
Playoff chances:
100% group
NYY
MIN
DET
FL
STL

Others:
SEA 4%
TEX 96%
NYM 97%
ARZ 39%
LAD 64%

That is for making the playoffs either by WC or division winner.

Most likely to win the WS:
MIN 42%
FL 24%
STL 13%
NYY 9%
NYM 8%
TEX and ARZ 1%

So basically the Twins have a better chance of winning the WS than the entire NL combined, lol, but mind you before this previous sim, MIN was at around 65% to win the WS. As a side note since some impact players for all teams are on the DL, the sim test adjusts the roster throughout the sim tests so yes FL that is figuring u to have haren and santana, no way u do that well without them, lol

Also FL, in a short series I will happily take matchups of:
Game 1: Santana v Kazmir
Game 2: Young v Johnson/Francis
Game 3: Mitre/Haren/Cook v Johnson/Francis
Game 4: Mitre/Haren/Cook v Kazmir
Game 5: Santana v Johnson/Francis
Game 6: Young v Johnson/Francis
Game 7: Mitre/Haren/Cook v Kazmir

And be very happy Santana is your only LHSP because otherwise it would be no contest with how my guys light up lefties, watch what I do to the NYMs (Glavine, Pettite, Putz, Robertson?) in the round prior

Is the first sim from the rosters before the deadline or after the deadline?

Woot, one percent to win the world series...

I think you seriously underestimate the year Cook is having. 160IPs, leads the league in CGs, 2.81 ERA... yea, he's good.

Why in game 4 does Kazmir go for you, but Santana doesn't go for me? And why does your 'short series' consist of 7 games?

My sim test has the chances of everyone winning at....

Minnesota-47%
Florida-15%
New York Mets-13%
St. Louis-13%
Detroit-6%
New Tork Yankees-6%

Admin wrote:

My sim test has the chances of everyone winning at....

Minnesota-47%
Florida-15%
New York Mets-13%
St. Louis-13%
Detroit-6%
New Tork Yankees-6%

But don't we all love that first team

hoosier31 wrote:

I think you seriously underestimate the year Cook is having. 160IPs, leads the league in CGs, 2.81 ERA... yea, he's good.

Why in game 4 does Kazmir go for you, but Santana doesn't go for me? And why does your 'short series' consist of 7 games?

I don't seriously underestimate anyone but I do see Francis or Johnson as superior to him as they are 2 of the hottest pitchers going down the stretch. I just assumed u would go to a 4 man rather than a 3 man in the playoffs because everyone I've talked to so far, other than me, seems to think that that extra rest is a big deal for their ace, but even then, I like those pitching matchups getting to see a LHSP 3 times with the way my lineup owns lefties. Also I consider play-offs in their entirety short series'.

After the last sim, the world series odds are:

Minnesota: 53%
Florida: 13%
St. Louis: 13%
New York Mets: 10%
New York Yankees: 9%
Detroit: 2%

As of August 23rd.....

Minnesota: 38%
New York Mets: 25%
St. Louis: 16%
Florida: 9%
New York Yankees: 7%
Detroit: 3%
Arizona: 2%

With only September to go, the percentages are now:

Minnesota-48%
New York Mets-15%
St. Louis-15%
Florida-12%
New York Yankees-6%
Detroit Tigers-4%

i'd love to know the percentages of the cards winning it all in 06:)

Well see the difference between the Cards in 06 and you right now is the Cards got healthy right before the playoffs, not lost almost half of their offense in 2 and a half weeks

Minnesota-48%
Florida-21%
New York Yankees-10%
St. Louis-10%
New York Mets-9%
Detroit-2%

At the end of the season, the odds are now:
Minnesota-47%
New York Mets-18%
New York Yankees-11%
Florida-10%
St. Louis-7%
Detroit-6%
Los Angeles-1%

So i'm at 20 percent w/o glavine?? nice...

I actually have a percentage without Cook, Hall & Fielder? nice...

Ill take my underdog team with 11%

After round one, the chances are now:

Minnesota-67%
New York Mets-20%
St. Louis-9%
New York Yankees-4%

Yankees please kill Minny

are you gonna do this for this season?

Anyone can do this, you just need to go to tools, then simulator, and then put in however many seasons you want to sim for.

Chicago (NL) - 23%
New York (AL) - 20%
Detroit - 18%
New York (NL) - 13%
St. Louis - 10%
Florida - 7%
Minnesota - 7%
Seattle - 1%
Tampa Bay - 1%

cubfan131 wrote:

Chicago (NL) - 23%
New York (AL) - 20%
Detroit - 18%
New York (NL) - 13%
St. Louis - 10%
Florida - 7%
Minnesota - 7%
Seattle - 1%
Tampa Bay - 1%

I'm 8 games back in my division and I'm at 13% lol....

tunit wrote:

cubfan131 wrote:

Chicago (NL) - 23%
New York (AL) - 20%
Detroit - 18%
New York (NL) - 13%
St. Louis - 10%
Florida - 7%
Minnesota - 7%
Seattle - 1%
Tampa Bay - 1%

I'm 8 games back in my division and I'm at 13% lol....

Haha, I am leading my division, and am not even there. Oh boy. Well maybe the potential trade I am working on will change that.